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仲量联行(上海)高级董事沙峰:物流地产,看上去很美?
文章来源:供应链时代      作者:scmsc      时间:2014/12/22 15:20:10

近年来,与喧嚣的住宅与商业地产相比,物流地产表现低调但成绩不俗;它最大的优势在于稳定的投资收益,相对较长的租赁期,使它基本不受市场波动的影响。

  

 

  ——专访仲量联行(上海)高级董事

  物流地产部总监 沙峰

  1994年9月,仲量联行在上海设立了中国大陆的首个分公司,今年也正是仲量联行进入中国20周年。仲量联行以整合全球资源的能力与丰富的本地经验,洞见着市场的战略重点。

  电子商务自身的高歌猛进也带热了市场对物流仓储的强劲需求,与此息息相关的物流地产也在以良好的市场基本面及理想的投资回报吸引着越来越多的资本进入其中;物流巨头、电商以及传统房企,均在物流地产领域纷纷下注,以期牢牢把握新的经济增长机会和行业竞争的主动权。物流地产的发展前景普遍被看好,然而,如何在看似优越的市场环境中摆脱各种因素的牵绊,掘出个中宝藏,是需要进一步深入研究和解决的问题。

  明鉴好光景之真形势

  近年来,与喧嚣的住宅与商业地产相比,物流地产表现低调但成绩不俗;它最大的优势在于稳定的投资收益,相对较长的租赁期,使它基本不受市场波动的影响。而对于物流地产来说,目前遭遇的最大瓶颈就是土地供给不足。中国物流与采购联合会调查报告显示,目前大部分企业拿地困难,土地供应减少的同时,地价也在不断上涨。

  仲量联行(上海)物流地产部总监沙峰表示,物流地产的蓬勃发展离不开电商行业的高速发展,当某个行业发展到一定程度,不可避免的就是资源整合。目前,电商行业的市场增长率逐渐放缓,电商行业的市场规模却在不断扩大。随着京东和阿里在美上市,将带动电商行业的新一轮增长。可以预见,物流仓储的需求在未来几年仍保持较好的上升态势。然而,由于物流项目对于地方政府的税收及就业的作用较为有限,物流仓储的未来供应很大程度上将受到土地因素的限制。要解决这个问题,就需要物流开发商与电商及其他行业进行创新合作,以提高拿地能力。由于现在仓储项目比较分散,且各项目的质量标准参差不齐,为了能够在新一轮市场契机中拔得头筹,各大开发商的资源整合也尤为重要。

  有业内人士指出,面对物流地产投资日渐走热的趋势,企业也面临着同质化竞争的风险,同质化竞争可能会使得企业或者开发商对园区的运作变得畸形,无差异的定位会将物流园区引入恶性竞争的局面;如何找到物流地产的空白点、增长点是立于潮头的关键。

  对此,沙峰告诉记者,物流地产作为近年最火的概念,越来越多的专业机构投资者积极参与。其中类型较多的为纯财务投资者(基金公司)与大型开发商合作建立合资企业(Joint Venture),如凯雷和宇培,华平和易商以及刚成立合作平台的万科与黑石。物流地产属于模式比较简单,门槛较低,行业较标准化的一种地产,虽然单个项目建设成本较低,但是物流地产看重的是规模效应,需要有足够的资金源源不断地投入,这也是为什么只有一些专业且资金雄厚的基金公司愿意投资。

  “目前较发达的一线地区土地供应紧缺,越来越多的物流地产开发商开始将他们的目光转移到供应量还不多的中西部地区,例如武汉、长沙、西安,成都,大量的未来供应量将会在未来几年内带给该地区供应的压力。另一方面,由于中产阶级的日益增长及中西部经济的快速发展,这些地区也是电商和第三方物流未来增长潜力最大的区域。”沙峰说道。

  深谙大动作之新未来

  电商和传统房产企业涉足物流地产是近年热议的话题,但细想来似乎也不足为奇。眼下,物流企业爆仓现象时常发生,物流现状已无法满足高速发展的电商业务需求,涉足物流业是电商发展的一种必然趋势。另外,住宅市场目前也面临诸多挑战,很多传统住宅开发商正在寻求转型,物流地产稳定的收益成为投资的不二之选。

  沙峰认为,企业以盈利为目的,有实力有现金流的公司总有一天都会进入物流地产这个领域。对电商而言,他们不需要去租赁别人的物业,可以按照自己的需求选址,量身定制自己的产品。电商造好的物业,可以是纯粹的对外出租,除了找陌生的客户,也可以找自己的上下游单位去用库房;如果是电商自己去做一些物流项目的话,从某些角度来说,要比外资企业会更有优势。

  “住宅地产开发商看到这几年很多外资企业在物流地产领域尝到了甜头,可能觉得物流仓库就是一个小盒子,从技术要求各方面来说比住宅、商业地产要简单;其实,这个产业并没有那么容易涉足。首先从选址就会非常讲究,同样一个城市,可能选东面就没有选西面好,这都要从客户的需求去做研究,去选定投资的方向。对于传统房地产行业来讲,如果他们在前期把整个市场都摸透,理解清楚,能够根据客户的需求去走,还是很不错的;但如果他们并不是特别关注各方面的因素,可能会存在风险。有些跨界进入物流领域的公司,投资的一些项目在招租的过程中还是面临比较大的挑战,跟之前的预期还是有一定差距,这主要表现在空置率和租金两方面。”沙峰透露。

  中国的物流产业正融入跨国化、大型化和互联网经济化的潮流之中,必然面临着巨大的机遇与挑战。物流行业发展的历史和经验表明,作为新兴的服务部门,物流产业已经全面进入高速发展阶段;而中国的物流地产虽然仍处于上升期,但在相当一些领域已经表现出快速发展的趋势和潜力。

  “就物流这个行业本身来说,在国内发展短短十来年,主要的发展契机可能是因为客户本身对于供应链这一块越来越注重。以往客户也许认为自己来做最省成本,但他们逐渐,意识到外包给专业的第三方去做,从长远来看公司可以省下很大一部分支出。我们相信这个市场会逐渐正规、成熟,物流这个行业的发展前景非常乐观。我相信也正是因为这一点,越来越多的国外新的投资者、开发商都希望到国内来投资,同时国内很多原本主营业务不是这一块的也纷纷去设立一个新的业务载体。”沙峰对记者表示。

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